BRIMELOW AT THE CASTLE: There May Be A Trump Landslide
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Peter Brimelow writes: This is part of the introduction I gave to the panel discussion on the last day of our April 26-28 Conference with some citations, tweets, and a chart added.

So I’ve not said very much at this conference, as you may have noticed, but I would just take a moment to make a couple of observations.

There is a poll out this morning, a CNN poll, which shows that Trump’s lead over Biden is now six points [CNN Poll: Trump maintains lead over Biden in 2024 matchup as views on their presidencies diverge, CNN, April 28, 2024]. In other words, it doesn’t seem to have been hurt at all by this farce in New York. CNN doesn’t like this very much.

But I always want to know what the white share is, what is Trump’s share of the white vote? Because that’s really the critical issue.

Americans are profoundly divided by race and their politics divide profoundly by race as well.

Well, CNN didn’t even bother to report the white share.

But generally speaking, Trump’s white share while better than Bush One or—even Bush Two for that matter—it’s not great.

I think the last time I found an estimate, it was something like 53%. Whereas. of course, the Democrats absolutely dominate their ethnic groups, getting close to 90% of blacks, for example.

So I regard this as a seismic torsion under American politics. Because the question is “When will the white vote tip decisively to the Republicans?“

If you look at the makeup of the parties, you see that the two parties, their base votes, are nothing like the same.

The last calculation we did is that if you factor out the Democrats, about 51% or 52%, either non-white or homosexual or Jewish (you have to do some adjustments to avoid double counting).

A chart we made of this in 2018

So that means that essentially less than half of the Democrat vote is what you might call normal white Americans.

Under those circumstances, you see housing projects and things like that tip. I do expect the white vote to tip decisively at some point in here.

And this could be the year, because I think the depth of distress about the obvious treason at the border is now very widespread.

Immigration regularly polls in the CNN poll, it polls as the second highest issue—right behind the economy.

So what this means is, I still think that it’s possible we could see a landslide this year.

And that’s particularly because of the other poll that has already been mentioned here, which actually ran on Thursday, it’s a Harris poll. And they reveal the fascinating information that something like a majority of Americans are in favor of mass deportations.

Among Republicans, it gets up to nearly 70%, but it’s over 40% with Democrats. It’s quite extraordinary [Exclusive poll: America warms to mass deportations, by Margaret Talev, Russell Contreras, Axios, April 28, 2024].

And of course, the political class absolutely does not want to hear this, but it does mean that there is, as I say, a fault line underlying American politics, which could break at some point.

Now, this analysis is profoundly informed by Steve Sailer’s analysis, which he first did in early 2000 for, pointing out that Karl Rove was wrong to think the way to the future was to win more minorities—that what the Republicans should do instead is  inreach, to the white vote.

I can add that this analysis was proven by the 2016 election, and that equally, Trump’s failure to surpass the margin of Democratic fraud in 2020 was probably caused by his own policy of outreach and failure of inreach. The 2024 election is still in doubt, but with the right speech by Trump, there could be a landslide.

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