It looks like GOP Virginia gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli's unexpectedly (by the MSM) narrow loss to Democrat Terry MecAuliffe is going to get more than the usual amount of spin, so it's refeshing to see this blunt summary:

It was a base election.

McAuliffe declared in his victory speech that “a historic number of Republicans” supported him. But that’s just not how it happened.

The Democrat won only 4 percent of self-identified Republicans, according to exit polling. His key was getting more of his people to the polls — 37 percent of voters self-identified as Democrats and 32 percent self-identified as Republican.

[Why Terry McAuliffe barely won, by James Hoheman, POLITICO, November 6, 2013. Emphasis in original]

Exit polling confirms Cuccinelli fatal failure to turn out his base: he got only 56% of the white vote, and white turnout was down:

There are important changes to the demographic turnout from four years ago that made the race close this year. The conservative vote was down slightly - from 40 percent in 2009 to 36 percent today - and they were slightly less supportive of the Republican candidate. White evangelicals - who voted strongly Republican Tuesday and four years ago - made up 27 percent of the vote, down from 34 percent in 2009. A majority of white voters - 56 percent - favored Cuccinelli in the race, but their percentage of the electorate was down slightly (72 percent now compared to 78 percent in 2009), while the percentage of black voters - who vote overwhelmingly Democratic - has rose (20 percent now compared to 16 percent in 2009).

McAuliffe wins nailbiter Virginia governor's race, By Fred Backus, Sarah Dutton and Rebecca Kaplan, CBS News, updated November 6, 2013

This of course is exactly the result that VDARE.com repeatedly predicted once it became clear that Cuccinelli's campaign was being run by Establishment GOP consultants, who among other things persuaded him to suppress his earlier opposition to illegal immigration, although this was actually more popular than his stands on social issues, which he just downplayed.

Another eminently winnable election has been blown—just as with Romney and McCain.

When will they ever learn? It's clear now that they won't. That's why there's going to be a Third Party.