How Much Worse Are Black Homicide Rates Due To Living More In Big Cities?
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Back in 2019, I reviewed Wilfred Reilly’s book Hate Crime Hoax: How the Left Is Selling a Fake Race War. Reilly is a part-black redneck college professor who teaches at Kentucky State in Frankfort.

These are homicide victims, not homicide perpetrators, but the correlation is usually pretty high between the two.

Kentucky’s Large Central Metro is Louisville, which is a pretty shooty town. Kentucky blacks settle down pretty quickly as they get less urban and by the rural NonCore (Nonmetro) category, their homicide death rate is only 1.6 times as bad as Kentucky whites.

Reilly offers an interesting perspective:

So, what is it nationally?

So, the black to white homicide death ratio falls with each less dense type of place, from 9.2x in Large Central Metros to 4.3x in NonCore (Nonmetros). The black Crude Rate of homicide deaths is only half as bad in rural areas (14.3 per 100,000) as in big cities (28.5).

In contrast, whites are least likely to die by homicide in big city suburbs (Large Fringe Metro), but otherwise their homicide Crude Rates are pretty similar (e.g., 3.1 in Large Central Metro and 3.3 in NonCore (Nonmetro).

But the homicide rates nationally don’t get as similar as they do in Kentucky.

(I’m using non-Hispanics for the national numbers although to save time I didn’t specify non-Hispanic for the Kentucky numbers, figuring it wouldn’t make much difference in Kentucky.)

Nationally, if I’m doing my arithmetic right, this would suggest that if blacks were distributed in the same proportions of urbanization as whites, then the black-to-white homicide ratio would fall by 10% from 8.0 to 7.2, which isn’t trivial but not huge either.

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