The good news we’ve learned since Russian invaded Ukraine back on February 24 is that Russia is militarily weaker than most people expected.
The future is unwritten, so this could change with time. After all, the Red Army that invaded Finland in November 1939 was a lot less competent than the Red Army that invaded Manchuria in August 1945.
But the Soviets were soon fighting a war of survival, so they had to get better to not become the Germans’ starving serfs.
So Russia in 2022 is not much of a Germany-in-1939 threat to soon send its tanks to the English Channel. Offensive wars of conquest in the 21st Century seem deadly and expensive, and pretty pointless.
On the other hand, Russia’s evident weakness also makes it potentially dangerous by inclining the Kremlin to double down in more desperate attempts to get out of the bind they stupidly placed themselves in.
The situation is especially risky because Russia’s military weakness encourages the West to want to punish Russia more for its aggression in starting a land war in Europe.
And, as I’ve been trying to emphasize, the stakes are much lower than in the 20th Century. Unlike in 1914, the people of Europe are well aware of how destructive wars can be. And, unlike after 1945, Moscow doesn’t have either a plausible ideology nor an argument for being an irresistible force earned in WWII.
