For my entire adult life, Conservatism Inc. and the leaders of the Stupid Party have been braying that Hispanics are “natural conservatives” and pandering to black voters with think-tank inspired schemes like school vouchers and enterprise zones.
But at root, politics is about identity, not ideas—and demography is destiny. Transform the makeup of a people and you transform their politics. “What counts for people are blood and belief, faith and family,” wrote Samuel Huntington in The Clash of Civilizations. “People will rally to those with similar ancestry, religion, language, values, and institutions and distance themselves from those with different ones.”
Yesterday, black voters cast 86% of their votes for Democrats while Asians and Hispanics gave just 4 in 10 votes to the GOP.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has more “diversity” than any time in its history. Between 2000 and 2021, the share of the population that is Hispanic/Latino increased 6.2 percentage points to 18.9%. The white (non-Hispanic) population—the Historic American Nation—had the largest decrease, dropping 10.1 percentage points to 59.3%.
In short, white voters are being replaced and their political power is being stripped. In the face of this onrushing demographic tsunami, the Trump wing of the GOP raises the specter of ever more stolen elections, blaming losses on fraud and ballot-stuffing.
The whole “stolen election” conspiracy theory is little more than a coping mechanism, a therapeutic release for white right-wingers to rationalize their demographic dispossession. Instead of acknowledging the reality that our political elites are intentionally electing a new people, it is easier to believe we’re the victims of some complicated and far-fetched conspiracy to rig every single election.
Not that there isn’t voter fraud or that mail-in voting and ballot harvesting shouldn’t be legally thwarted, but that type of activity on its own wouldn’t be enough in a country that was still 90% white.
